The world waits with anticipation with the results of the electoral process in the United States. But, while the final outcomes are unknown, we can enjoy a huge sigh of relief. America has retained his exalted status as a beacon of electoral peace and propriety. So, before the polls close in the US, let me share with you what we have learned before the vote tabulations begin.
I am pleased to report that the United States is demonstrating to all of its citizens and the world that contentious and divisive political views can be expressed through a peaceful electoral process. We all want the same outcome for our families, friends, communities, and residents of our great nation. So, this election offers a model for the rest of the world to emulate.
FIRST, the turn-out or participation rate in the 2020 election is at an historical HIGH level. Over 100 million people had voted before the ‘walk-in’ polls opened on Tuesday morning. These include municipal buildings, schools, universities, churches, and even professional sports facilities such as NBA gymnasiums. The big question was whether people would be turned off by the vicious political campaign discourse and voter intimidation tactics of the Republican Party. Yes, the Democrats have been working hard against voter suppression policies since the 2018 elections. Instead, it appears that the Black Lives Matter multicultural coalition, together with disdain for current COVID-19 pandemic policies, has produced a groundswell of political engagement across the country.
The blatant strategy of voter suppression of the Republican Party includes President Trump’s appointment of a wealthy political benefactor, Louis DeJoy, (his company is a competitor of USPS) as Postmaster General of the US Postal Service. DeJoy’s “reorganization” of USPS services was explicitly designed to delay the delivery of absentee and mail-in ballots after state mandated deadlines. Postal service unions, political activists, nonprofit organizations, official state electoral offices, federal judges, and Democratic lawyers have successfully negated most of these delay tactics. Not only did a Federal judge mandate a “sweep” of all mail-in ballots by 3 pm for delivery on Election Day but local electoral officials have been sending staff to collect remaining ballots in municipal post offices for delivery by police escort to be officially tabulated through the day of the election.
Kudos to the commitment to the democratic election process that voting in the 2020 landmark election has been a case-study of ensuring inclusive civic engagement. With over 100 million votes cast by early Tuesday morning, I expect well over 160 million votes to be tabulated—about a 20% increase from the 138 million votes of 2016.
SECOND, exercising the right to vote throughout the United States has featured a much more peaceful process than the preceding electoral campaigns. Rampant and widespread voter intimidation has not been reported as initially feared and violence has not erupted outside of polling sites. Even President Trump has publicly voiced a calmer and much less aggressive tone to his supporters in fostering a high turn-out of the electorate. The lack of violent provocations is portentous in the event of a peaceful transfer of power on January 20th, 2021. So, far, America has demonstrated to the world that contentious elections can be conducted peacefully and without fear of violent reprisals.
THIRD, now my forecast of the final results of the 2020 election. I think that Vice-President Joe Biden will win the “Popular Vote” with at least 6.5 - 7.0 million more votes than President Trump. This will translate to 315 to 323 Electoral votes in a resounding electoral victory. The Democratic Party will be rewarded with a net gain of 8 House Seats and a net gain of 4 Senate seats with two Senate run-off seats to be determined in January.
Overall, I believe that pollsters underestimated the number of voters who publicly expressed their support for President TRUMP to receive social approval from families and their social groups and then secretly voted for Joe Biden without announcing their decision. This trend is encouraged by many prominent Republicans who have expressed their public support for Joe Biden as respected political "influencers." My assessment is that this voter preference trend most likely occurred among women and independent voters. Unlike 2016, when “Undecided” voters changed their minds at the polls and voted for Donald Trump, I believe that there will be a decisive “swing” in voting behavior when this civic duty is exercised in private. What worked for TRUMP in 2016 will work against him in 2020.
As we await the final results of the Historic Election, we hope that Americans will demonstrate their respect for the Democratic election process and support a peaceful transition of power on January 20th, 2020.